Democratic Republic of Congo : Product and Market Concentration and the Vulnerability to Exogenous Shocks

Bou-Habib, Chadi ; Kebede, Ephraim

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EXPORT PATTERNS;    EXPORT RECEIPTS;    TRADE VOLUME;    MERCHANDISE;    REGULATORY FRAMEWORK;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7700
RP-ID  :  WPS7700

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The high level of exports and theirproduct and market concentration exposes the DemocraticRepublic of Congo to the economic fluctuations of thecountry's trade partners. This paper uses the UnitedNations Conference on Trade and Development trade data setto analyze the Democratic Republic of Congo's exportpatterns for the period 1960-2014. The data confirm that thecountry's exports remain highly concentrated. Theproduct concentration on minerals is high and reachesexceptional levels. The geographic concentration is alsohigh, while there is a shift in destinations. Hence, EU27,traditionally the main market destination for the DemocraticRepublic of Congo, lost its importance to China for most ofthe past decade. This trend continued to increase in thepast few years from 2010 to 2013.The clear prevalence ofcommodity products within the Democratic Republic ofCongo's exports and the higher exposure to the Chineseeconomic cycle are sources of vulnerability. The empiricalanalysis indicates that the country's exports appear tobe significantly sensitive to foreign demand fluctuations.This exposure increases the volatility of the country'smacroeconomic framework to exogenous shocks, with negativeconsequences on growth in gross domestic product and onexternal balances. The analysis concludes that increasingthe Democratic Republic of Congo's resilience requiresproduct and market diversification of exports. Thisdiversification requires improvements in the investmentclimate and business environment, with emphasis on skillsand infrastructure.