The Scars of Civil War : The Long-Term Welfare Effects of the Salvadoran Armed Conflict

Acosta, Pablo ; Baez, Javier E. ; Caruso, German ; Carcach, Carlo

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CIVIL WAR;    ARMED CONFLICT;    LONG-TERM IMPACT;    WELFARE IMPACT;    HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9430
RP-ID  :  WPS9430

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper estimates the long-termeffects on human capital accumulation and subsequent labormarket outcomes of in utero and early childhood exposure tothe civil war in El Salvador (1980-92), the second longestand deadliest civil conflict in Central America.Identification is obtained from spatial and intertemporalvariation in the intensity of the conflict drawn fromhistorical archive data comprising records of humancasualties, disappearances, and refugees. The results showthat people born in highly violent areas during the civilwar saw a reduction in their probability of being employedby 6 percentage points, and of getting a high-skilled job by5 percentage points, 20 to 30 years after it happened. Thecivil war also reduced their education by 0.8 year, as wellas their enrollment and literacy rates. Subgroup analysisindicates that exposed males and indigenous groupsexperienced the largest losses in human capital and hadweaker performance in the labor market.