Poverty Implications of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Price Distortions in Pakistan

Cororaton, Caesar B. ; Orden, David

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY;    AGRICULTURAL LIBERALIZATION;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;   

RP-ID  :  55939

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using recent estimates of industryassistance rates, the effects of trade liberalization in therest of the world and in Pakistan alone are analyzed using aglobal and a Pakistan computable general equilibrium (CGE)model under two tax replacement schemes: a direct income taxand an indirect tax replacement. The results indicate thatthe distributional and poverty effects in Pakistan of aunilateral liberalization of all traded goods aresignificantly greater than the effects of tradeliberalization in the rest of the world. There is relativelyhigher increase in real income and larger decline in povertyincidence in poor households both in rural and urban areas.The effects of agricultural trade liberalization alone inboth the rest of the world and in Pakistan are considerablysmaller than those from trade liberalization involving allgoods. In both the agricultural and all-goods tradeliberalization scenarios involving direct income taxreplacement, real household income is raised and the povertyincidence is lowered at varied rates across all householdgroups except for the urban non-poor. When an indirect taxreplacement is used, where the burden of replacing tariffrevenue is shared by all household groups depending on theirconsumption structure, there is reduction in householdincome for most of the groups and less reduction of poverty.