Borrow with Sorrow? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa's Debt

Calderon, Cesar ; Zeufack, Albert G.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: DEBT SUSTAINABILITY;    DEBT SERVICE BURDEN;    DEBT COMPOSITION;    BOND ISSUE;    FISCAL TRENDS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9137
RP-ID  :  WPS9137

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In the post-global financial crisisperiod, the financing of countercyclical policies led notonly to a reduction in the fiscal surpluses acrossSub-Saharan African countries, but also an increase in theirlevels of indebtedness. Although public debt for the regionin 2018 was still below that of the pre-debt forgivenessperiod, the risk profile of public debt has sharplyincreased. The share of concessional public debt has beendeclining while that owed to private creditors and non–ParisClub bilateral creditors has been rising. The resultingreconfiguration of public debt has led to increased debtservice in the region. Hence, the higher risk profile ofdebt and rising payments might lower the threshold for debtdistress in the region. Addressing public debtvulnerabilities requires the buildup of external and fiscalbuffers by conducting prudent fiscal policies andimplementing growth-enhancing reforms, and the strengtheningof debt management practices. However, the policy toolkitcan be enlarged by gradually moving from debt management tobalance-sheet management of the public sector, and policiesto boost the efficiency of public investment.