Prospects, Risks, andVulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade

Ruch, Franz Ulrich

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: VULNERABILITY;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    POTENTIAL OUTPUT;    POTENTIAL GROWTH;    RISKS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9181
RP-ID  :  WPS9181

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Growth in emerging markets anddeveloping economies (EMDEs) has generally disappointedsince the 2009 global recession, with sizable forecastdowngrades in most years. EMDEs continue to face downsiderisks to growth outlook over the next couple of years. Theseinclude heightened global policy uncertainty, tradetensions, spillovers from weaker-than-expected growth inmajor economies, and disorderly financial marketdevelopments. These risks are accompanied by region-specificrisks, including geopolitical tensions, armed conflict, andsevere weather events. If risks materialize, their impact onEMDEs depends on the magnitude of spillovers and domesticvulnerabilities. Since the 2009 global recession, external,corporate sector and sovereign vulnerabilities have risen inmost EMDEs, leaving them less well-prepared for futureshocks. Low-income countries, in particular, face elevatedvulnerabilities, with about 40 percent of them currently indebt distress. Over the longer run, EMDEs also faceweakening potential growth, reflecting decelerations incapital accumulation and productivity growth, as well asdemographic headwinds. These constraints are likely tohamper growth in the next decade unless they are mitigatedby ambitious and credible reform agendas.