The growth of agriculture output overthe past 200 years has been phenomenal. When Malthus wrotein 1798, he perceived limits on agricultural production asserious and imminent. Since then world population hasincreased by six-fold and global agricultural production hasmore than kept pace. Falling real grain prices for most ofthe 20th Century are cited as evidence. The sources of theincrease in food production, however, have been quitedifferent and have come in distinct waves. For most of the19th century, increased output came from expanded land areain production. Science-based agriculture is really apost-Mendel phenomenon. In the 20th century, new technologycame in different forms. First, mechanical technology,particularly the tractor, made possible cultivating moreacres and freed enormous areas used for producing fuel fordraft animals, for food production. Improvements in breedingand agronomy in the middle part of the century opened thepossibility of substantially increasing yields per unit ofland through the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.As we look to the 21st century, this conference is asking acritical question about the role of knowledge, science andtechnology in meeting future global food needs.
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