Growth and Risk : A View from International Trade

Krishna, Pravin ; Levchenko, Andrei A. ; Maloney, William F.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: INTERNATIONAL TRADE;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    RISK MANAGEMENT;    PRODUCT QUALITY;    FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9296
RP-ID  :  WPS9296

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies the cross-countrypatterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens ofinternational trade. It uses a simple theoretical frameworkof risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels offinancial development to derive two predictions. First, themean rate of quality growth and the correspondingcross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country arepositively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance ofquality changes are positively correlated with thecountry's level of financial development. The papertests these two hypotheses using data on disaggregated(Harmonized System 10- digit) bilateral exports to theUnited States. The patterns in the data are consistent withthe theory. The mean and the variance of quality growth arestrongly positively correlated with each other. Countrieswith greater financial depth are systematicallycharacterized by higher mean and higher variance in thegrowth of product quality. The findings suggest amean-variance trade-off in product quality improvementsalong the development path. Increases in financial depth donot imply lower variability of changes in the product space.