Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions

Cust, James ; Mensah, Justice Tei

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EXPECTATIONS;    CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT;    HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS;    NATURAL RESOURCES;    OIL DISCOVERIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9372
RP-ID  :  WPS9372

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Major oil and gas discoveries are oftenassociated with excitement and jubilation among citizens andgovernment officials. But the extent to which discoveriessubstantially alter citizen expectations about economicconditions in a country remains an open question. The papercombines Afrobarometer data on household expectations oneconomic conditions and living standards with theannouncement of oil and gas discoveries in Africa toestimate the effect of discoveries on expectations. Theidentification strategy exploits plausibly exogenousvariation in the timing of discoveries relative to therollout of survey interviews. The study find thatdiscoveries increase expectations of better economicconditions and living standards by 35 and 52 percentrespectively.Further, the paper finds that the overallexpectations boom effect pertains only to countries withweaker institutions. The paper also provides evidence thathouseholds incorporate these expectations into theirmigration and fertility decisions, with fewer applicationsin the short run to the U.S. green card lottery andincreased childbirth following discovery announcements.