Have Robots Grounded the Flying Geese? Evidence from Greenfield FDI in Manufacturing

Hallward-Driemeier, Mary ; Nayyar, Gaurav

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AUTOMATION;    ROBOTS;    FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;    GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN;    FLYING GEESE PARADIGM;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9097
RP-ID  :  WPS9097

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

For decades, manufacturers around theworld have outsourced production to countries with lowerlabor costs. However, there is a concern that robotizationin high-income countries will challenge this shiftinginternational division of labor known as the "flyinggeese" paradigm. Greenfield foreign direct investmentdecisions constitute a forward-looking indicator of whereproduction is expected, rather than trade flows that reflectpast investment decisions.Exploiting differences acrosscountries and industries, the intensity of robot use inhigh-income countries has a positive impact on foreigndirect investment growth from high-income countries to low-and middle-income countries over 2004-15. Past a threshold,however, increased robotization in high-income countries hasa negative impact on foreign direct investment growth. Only3 percent of the sample exceeds the threshold level beyondwhich further automation results in negative foreign directinvestment growth and is consistent with re-shoring. Foranother 25 percent of the sample, the impact of robotizationon the growth of foreign direct investment is positive, butat a rate that is declining. So, although these are earlywarning signs, automation in high-income countries hasresulted in growing foreign direct investment for more thantwo-thirds of the sample under consideration.Some geesemay be slowing, but for now, most continue to fly.