Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

Jafino, Bramka Arga ; Walsh, Brian ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CLIMATE CHANGE;    CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT;    EXTREME POVERTY;    INEQUALITY;    SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9417
RP-ID  :  WPS9417

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Thousands of scenarios are used toprovide updated estimates for the impacts of climate changeon extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number ofpeople falling into poverty due to climate change is between32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These resultsare commensurate with available estimates for the globalpoverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers playa major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid andinclusive growth with universal access to basic services in2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimisticbaselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting)and the effect of food prices are responsible for most ofthe impact. The effect of food prices is the most importantfactor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, naturaldisasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia.These results suggest that accelerated action to boostresilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packagesoffer opportunities to do so.