Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided

Leifman, Michael Meir ; Leifman, Michael M.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE;    INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT;    ENERGY;    TRANSPORT;    WATER;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8748
RP-ID  :  WPS8748

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents the details of threescenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- thatdescribe an illustrative set of technological states. Basedlargely on expert interviews, the paper argues that thetechnology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions(or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers andincumbents. For each scenario, the paper presentsdescriptive levels of technology achievement and marketoutcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. Oneof the central differentiating features of the threescenarios is the extent to which governments perform theirroles as enabling, that is, whether the policies aredesigned to help or hinder innovations that improve servicelevels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies aredesigned to ensure that multiple segments of society reapthe rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of thattheme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they mightbecome derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutionalbehavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in thesediscussions and are noted in the paper. It is important torecognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors canlead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition todescribing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses therationale for their creation, along with a brief discussionon the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes themethodology employed in the creation of the scenarios,including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop.