Migration and Remittances in the Former Soviet Union Countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus : What Are the Long-Term Macroeconomic Consequences?

Brownbridge, Martin ; Canagarajah, Sudharshan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: MIGRATION;    LABOR PRODUCTIVITY;    HUMAN CAPITAL;    INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION;    REMITTANCES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9111
RP-ID  :  WPS9111

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic,and Tajikistan have all experienced substantialout-migration of workers and an associated inflow ofworkers' remittances over the past two decades. Thesefour countries have much higher human capital, as measuredby the Human Capital Index, than is typical for countrieswith similar levels of per capita income, and this mayenable migrant workers to exploit opportunities to work ineconomies where labor productivity is higher. The inflow ofworkers' remittances has had effects analogous to thoseof Dutch disease in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan,which have experienced a large rise in expenditure to outputand the share of services in gross domestic product,appreciation of the Balassa-Samuelson adjusted real exchangerates, and poor trade performance. In Armenia and Georgia,where remittances are a smaller share of gross domesticproduct, the effects were much more muted and their tradeperformance was much better.