The Economic Potential of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and Implementation Challenges

Edmonds, Jae ; Forrister, Dirk ; Clarke, Leon ; de Clara, Stefano ; Munnings, Clayton

International Emissions Trading Association, University of Maryland, and Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, Washington, D.C.

关键词: CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS;    CARBON PRICING;    CARBON POLICY;    GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS;    CLIMATE CHANGE;   

RP-ID  :  147243

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This technical paper investigates thepotential economic and environmental outcomesassociated withthe use of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement by participatingcountries.The extent to which countries use Article 6, andhow they use it, will be informed by design choices agreedupon by negotiators in forthcoming Conference of the Parties(COP) meetings, particularly the next one to be held at COP25 in Chile and by the agreements made between participatingparties. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM),an integrated assessment model, to quantify the economicpotential of Article 6. We go on to discuss real worldconsiderations and potential implications of design choicescurrently under consideration by negotiators. We find thatArticle 6 has the potential to reduce the total cost ofimplementing nationally determined contributions (NDCs) bymore than half (~250 billion dollars/year in 2030), oralternatively facilitate the removal of 50 percent moreemissions (~5 gigatonnes ofcarbon dioxide per year[GtCO2/year] in 2030), at no additional cost. We note,however, that careful framing in both the design andimplementation of Article 6 is essential. A poorly designedand implemented framework could frustrate the achievement ofParis goals, whilea well-designed and implemented frameworkcould further them. We conclude by identifying gaps in theresearch that would be useful to address before COP 25 in Chile.