Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: COMMODITY PRICES;    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;    ENERGY;    AGRICULTURE;    METALS;   

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Commodity prices in the third quarter of 2018 were buffeted by geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Energyprices gained 3 percent in 2018 Q3 (q/q), partly in response to the impending re-imposition of sanctions onIran by the United States along with continuing declines in production in Venezuela. As a result, crude oil pricesare expected to average $72 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and $74/bbl in 2019. Thisrepresents a sizable upward revision from the April 2018 forecast. Moreover, risks to the oil price forecast are tothe upside in the short-term, given the recent decline in spare capacity. In contrast, metal and agricultural pricesdeclined 10 and 7 percent, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018 amid robust supplies and trade disputes.Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2019 whereas agricultural prices are expected to gain almost 2 percent. This edition also examines how energy and metal commodity markets have evolved over the past 20 years. Itshows that China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, particularly for coal and metals, butthat its demand is likely to slow while other emerging market economies are unlikely to emulate China." /> -->