Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2017 : The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA

Devarajan, Shantayanan ; Mottaghi, Lili

Washington, DC: World Bank

关键词: GROWTH;    PEACE;    ECONOMIC POLICY;    VOLATILITY;    POVERTY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1085-5
RP-ID  :  114057

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in theMiddle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation isexpected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still belowpotential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in theregion, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to"cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are oneof the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on howthe post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help thesewar-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as awhole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk arecurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflictreconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.