Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: COMMODITY PRICES;    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;    ENERGY;    AGRICULTURE;    METALS;   

RP-ID  :  153839

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices." /> -->