Gulf Economic Monitor, February 2018 : Deepening Reforms

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    PENSIONS;    ECONOMIC REFORM;    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;    GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL;   

RP-ID  :  124396

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This second edition of the twice-yearlyGulf Economic Monitor describes recent economicdevelopments, near-term prospects, and broader reformpriorities in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries(ThePulse of the Region). Regional aggregate GDP growth in2017 weakened to just 0.5 percent, weighed down by oilproduction cuts and tighter fiscal policy that took a tollon non-oil growth. Prospects, however, are for a gradualstrengthening, helped by the partial recovery in energyprices, the expiration of oil production cuts after 2018,and an easing of fiscal austerity. Aggregate growth in theregion is expected to strengthen to 2.1 and 2.7 percent in2018 and 2019, respectively. Risks to the outlook includepotential external headwinds resulting from the tighteningof monetary policy in advanced economies and/or geopoliticaltensions that lead to volatility in global financial marketsor commodity prices. Although fiscal and external balancesare improving, the region continues to face large financingneeds among both sovereigns and corporates, and thus remainsvulnerable to volatility in global capital flows and thecost of funding. Finally, the reform agendas underconsideration in GCC countries are necessarily complex andrequire considerable political resolve. The Monitor alsodescribes how, following three years of sustained fiscaladjustments to lower oil prices, the GCC countries, led bythe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, are shifting attention towardsdeeper structural reforms. These are needed to breathe newlife into sluggish domestic economies, create jobs for youngpeople and strengthen private investment, to broaden theeconomic base and to anchor longer term fiscalsustainability. The report, however, cautions against policycomplacency stemming from the recent partial recovery in oilprices that leads to loss in reform momentum. Instead, iturges countries to double down on reforms in order to securethe long term futures of their economies and their people.The final part of the report includes an analytical In Focussection that discusses the sustainability, equity, andwelfare challenges confronting regional pension systems.