Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

Arias, Diego ; Caballero, Jorge

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    DISEASE;    DROUGHTS;    ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;    PESTS;   

RP-ID  :  100992

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The present study is part of an effortby the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assessagriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategiceconomic development and poverty reduction agenda of thestate government. It is composed of two phases: anagricultural sector risk identification and prioritization(volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan(volume two). The study provides practical elements for theimplementation of the Bahia sustainable rural developmentproject - named Bahia Produtiva, which is currentlyimplemented by Regional Development and Action Company ofBahia (CAR) and is financed by a World Bank loan. Risks inBahia’s agricultural sector are highly concentrated insoybean, maize, cotton, cacao, fruits, vegetables, andbeans. There are a number of relatively frequent (1 in 3, 1in 5 and 1 in 10 year occurrence probability) risks thathave moderate expected impact. These risks are climate(drought), pest and diseases, and price volatility. Althoughlivestock production is greatly exposed to sanitary risks,Bahia has not suffered catastrophic animal or plant healthevents in recent years. Looking at risks from the combinedperspective of their impact potential (moderate to critical)and management possibility (none to very high), severedrought and moniliase disease in cacao appear as the riskswith the most critical potential impact and minimum riskmanagement. Therefore, they require medium to long-terminvestment and strong preparation to cope. Consideringoutput value as a measure of aggregated impact of risks inBahia as a whole, the greatest challenges are drought,aggressive pests and diseases, and weeds resistant toherbicides in Western Bahia, taking into account theproportionally large economic size of that region. Thepresent action plan reflects the strategic lines andincludes some basic details on who, when, and how much isrequired for the implementation of the actions. This reportpresents the findings and conclusions of the first andsecond phases of the agriculture sector risk assessment forthe state of Bahia.