Angola Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Economic Diversification

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    DIVERSIFICATION;    COMPETITIVENESS;    PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT;    GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN;   

RP-ID  :  133234

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Angolan economy is at a significantjuncture. The current growth model based on oil wealth isnearly exhausted and has not delivered inclusive growth andshared prosperity. Angola faces two broad policy challengesthat need to be addressed urgently: macroeconomicstabilization and a more inclusive economic growth. Theinternal and external imbalances following the adjustment tolower oil prices pose a challenge to macro-stabilization.The prospect of volatile oil prices and potentiallydiminishing oil reserves over the medium and long-term callfor a new sustainable and inclusive growth model thatpromotes economic diversification, a model that is lessdependent on natural resource exports. The newadministration is aware of these challenges and has startedto implement much needed reforms. Angola is right to focuson reforms that lay the foundation for long-termmacroeconomic stability and economic diversification.Analyses conducted as part of this report indicate thatthere are significant gains to be had from such reforms. Theobjective of this report on Angola is to support policymakers in their reform efforts. The report is organized asfollows: Chapter 1 takes stock of recent trends anddeterminants of growth in Angola, highlighting theimportance of natural resource wealth and volatility forgrowth outcomes. Chapter 2 presents the findings of a growthdiagnostic for Angola, and highlights low human capital,access to finance, weak institutions and macroeconomicinstability as critical and binding constraints for thenon-oil economy. Chapter 3 uses product space analysis toevaluate Angola’s current and future potential for economicand export diversification, drawing attention to productsand services sectors in which there is potential for exportupgrading and/or product innovation. Chapter 4 provides anoverview of the agriculture sector and assesses itspotential for economic diversification. Chapter 5 sets outthe way forward, identifying: critical reforms formacroeconomic stability; a fiscal framework fornatural-resource wealth management; and macro-financial stability.