Rwanda Economic Update, July 2012 : Leveraging Regional Integration

World Bank

World Bank, Kigali

关键词: ACCESS TO CAPITAL;    ACCOUNTING;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURE;   

RP-ID  :  72996

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Rwanda grew at a rapid rate in thesecond half of 2011, exceeding 10 percent for the firsttime, since the 2009 global economic downturn. Overall,Rwanda achieved 8.6 percent growth in 2011, andsubstantially exceeded the average growth for Sub- SaharanAfrica (SSA) of 5.0 percent. Rwanda also grew fastest thanall the countries in the East African Community (EAC), whichas a group reached 6.1 percent in 2011. Robust growthcontinued in the first quarter of 2012, when Rwanda'seconomy expanded at 7.7 percent. Renewed concerns over theglobal growth outlook and of the European debt crisis, mightnegatively affect Rwanda's prospects in 2012/2013, andlead to a lower growth turn-out compared to 2011. Firstquarter growth in 2012 remained overall robust, but showedconsiderable weakness in the industry sector. This was incontrast to what was observed in the second half of 2011,when industrial growth led by buoyant construction, andmining activities pushed the sector to the top, ahead ofservices. In the second half of 2011, Rwanda's growthmomentum accelerated largely led by thriving non-tradablegoods and services sectors while the manufacturing sectorcontinued to be sluggish. The Rwandan economy expanded by10.8 percent during the second half of 2011, butmanufacturing only contributed 0.5 percentage points to thisgrowth outcome. Agricultural output took a leap in thesecond half, mainly due to a very good second harvest seasonoutcome. Overall, growth turn-out for 2011 stood at 8.6percent, up from 7.2 percent in 2010. Inflationary pressuresreappeared in tandem with high international food and fuelprices. The small policy response came with a delay, notenough to prevent core inflation reaching its highest levelsince mid-2009. Core inflation exceeded headline inflationfor the whole second half of 2011. The current accountdeficit broadened in 2011. Rwanda's export performedrobustly, benefiting from high international prices, butcould not keep up with the increasing import bill, leadingto a further deterioration in the trade balance. For 2012,Rwanda's economy is expected to continue to grow slowerthan it did in 2011, but at a healthy pace. The industrialsector is likely to expand less than in 2011 and growth inthe services sector is expected to be more moderate, both onaccount of a more risky global environment.