The World Bank expects the Armenianeconomy to grow about 4 percent in 2017 with a modest butsustained recovery envisaged over the medium term. Afterstagnating in 2016, the economy showed renewed andgreater-than-expected strength in the first half of 2017,which has continued into the third quarter but at amoderated pace. Higher gross domestic product (GDP), alongwith improvements in tax administration, have contributed toan improvement in tax collection, which has permitted someloosening of the earlier compression of capitalexpenditures. Having exceeded the fiscal rule’s lowerdebt-to-GDP threshold (50 percent), the deficit has beenconstrained to below 3 percent of GDP this year. This issueof the Armenia country economic update includes a specialsection on population, migration, and growth. It highlightsthe extent to which net out migration has driven Armenia’spopulation dynamics, how it may affect longer term growth,and the types of policies that can stem the outflow ofArmenia’s best and brightest young people.
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