Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, June 2012

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY;    ACCOUNTING;    ACCUMULATION OF RESERVES;    ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS;    ARREARS;   

RP-ID  :  70210

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The World Bank's Mongolia quarterlyeconomic update assesses recent economic and socialdevelopments and policies in Mongolia. It also presentsfindings of ongoing World Bank activities in Mongolia. TheMongolian economy is continuing to grow at a very rapidpace, expanding by 16.7 percent year-on-year (yoy) in firstquarter (Q1). This high growth however, is also fuellinginflation which touched 16 percent in April, well above theBank of Mongolia's (BoM) inflation target of 10percent. Increasing government spending on wages andsalaries, large cash handouts to the general population, andburgeoning capital expenditures are adding to the demandpressures. Meanwhile, the worsening global economic outlook,in particular a faster than expected slowdown in China,Mongolia's largest trading partner, has negativelyimpacted export growth, resulting in deterioration inexternal balances. Under these circumstances, the advice toMongolian policy-makers is to 'hold your horses'and adopt a more cautious macro-economic stance, tighteningboth monetary and fiscal policy to prevent furtherover-heating of the economy. The global economic outlook hasdeteriorated considerably in recent months. Financialconditions in high-income Europe, higher oil prices, and,most importantly, the slowing Chinese economy pose risks forMongolia. The channels through which these operate includefinancial and trade linkages namely volatility in commodityprices and through demand from China for its mineralexports. Indeed, signs of these are already visible asdemonstrated by the decline in exports in April. Otherfinancial market linkages should also not be discounted:Mongolia's banking system, which has shown signs ofoverheating over the past year, is highly dollarized, withabout a third of deposits denominated in dollars and easyconvertibility out of the Mongolia Togrog. A sharp economicslowdown and/or an increased macroeconomic instability couldexpose the liquidity and asset quality vulnerabilities inindividual banks and system overall.