Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

World Bank

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: TARIFFS;    REGULATORY FRAMEWORK;    CUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION;    CUSTOMS UNION;    EXPORT MARKETS;   

RP-ID  :  103996

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Moldova’s recent Association Agreementwith the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep andComprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents animportant opportunity, as well as challenges. Thisanalytical document has been commissioned by the World BankGroup to provide insights into potential outcomes of theDCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using aDynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) modelcalibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describingthe general trends in economic relations between Moldova andthe EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, aswell as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration.This section includes some additional facts and details thatcomplement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In thesecond section, the paper presents the main elements of theDCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessionsthat the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a shortreview of available literature on the ex-ante or ex postimpact assessments of other Association Agreements betweenthe EU and third countries that have been done using CGEmodels. The third section presents key features of the DCGEand discusses the data used for assembling the SocialAccounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of thesimulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paperdiscusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effectsof the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economicactivity level. Some distributional impacts are also broughtinto discussion. The final section concludes and makesseveral recommendations.