Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2020 : Thailand in the Time of COVID-19

World Bank Group

World Bank, Bangkok

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;    CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    PANDEMIC IMPACT;   

RP-ID  :  150134

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) shock hitThailand in early 2020 adding to pre-existingvulnerabilities. Economic growth slowed from 4.2 percent in2018 to 2.4 percent in 2019, with particularly weakperformance in Q4 2019. The key drivers of slowing growthwere weaker demand for exports reflecting the impact ofUS-China trade tensions, slowing public investments drivenby delay in the passage of the FY 2020 budget, and adrought, impacting agricultural production. The COVID shockhit Thailand in early 2020 and has already had a significanteconomic impact, with a sharp growth contraction of 1.8percent y-o-y and 2.2 percent q-o-q in Q1 2020. The Thaieconomy is projected to contract sharply in 2020, driven bya sharp deterioration in global and domestic demand. In thebaseline, the economy is projected to contract by 5.0percent in 2020, which is among the sharpest projecteddeclines in the region. This is driven by a sharp decline inexports, particularly from tourism receipts and weakeningglobal trade, and a slowdown in domestic demand reflectingthe impact of mobility restrictions and mandated closures ofbusinesses. The forecast is subject to future revisions,particularly on the downside, given heightened uncertaintysurrounding the outbreak trajectory, globally and domestically.