South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

World Bank

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO MARKETS;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    ARREARS;   

RP-ID  :  74593

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

After two years of fragile recovery fromthe global recession, as a group the six South East Europeancountries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH),Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia areexperiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deterioratingexternal conditions, the impact of the severe winter oneconomic activity, and a continuing rise in unemploymentearly in the year took a toll on consumption, investments,and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania,and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere inreducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even asthey must continue to improve the investment climate andreform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges tofiscal management and the private sector, and there areunfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years ofdeep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment andpoverty, and a continuing recession even with the bestefforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms,which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countriesare caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle oflong-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt,and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent thisoutcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need toredouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structuralreforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscalspace and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, anoutlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain publiccapital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investmentis suppressed by the lack of productive, complementarypublic investments, slow credit recovery, and depresseddomestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports arenot only too few, they are prevented from becoming animmediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance,and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reformsmaterialize, external support well-coordinated and targetingthe region as a whole, not just individual countries fromthe European Union (EU) and global international financialinstitutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a moresustained growth in medium term.In November 2012, theEuropean Investment Bank, the European Bank forReconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East Europeancountries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, thistimely initiative would likely be delivered via the WesternBalkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources.Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also beimportant, especially in supporting institutional reform andrural development. By focusing on major infrastructure ofregional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) andon jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency ofinvestments, growth, and employment could be substantiallyheightened. However, additional financing for growth andjobs could prove effective only if accompanied byintensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in theareas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance.