Are Driving Forces of CO2 Emissions Different across Countries? : Insights from Identity and Econometric Analyses

Dong, Kangyin ; Hochman, Gal ; Timilsina, Govinda R.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS;    POLLUTION;    DRIVING FORCES;    LMDI METHOD;    CLIMATE CHANGE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8477
RP-ID  :  WPS8477

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates factors behindthe growth of carbon dioxide emissions over the 35 yearsbetween 1980 and 2015 in more than 100 countries, using anindex decomposition technique (the Logarithmic Mean DivisiaIndex). The results are further confirmed using aneconometric technique (the general method of moments). Thestudy finds that economic growth, measurred in per capitagross domestic product, and population growth are the maindrivers of the growth of carbon dioxide emissions during1980–2015. Although economic growth is mainly responsiblefor the growth of emissions in high-, upper-middle-, andlower-middle-income countries, population growth that isprimarily responsilble for it in low-income countries. Morethan 70 percent of the global growth in carbon dioxideemissions over the past 35 years was contributed byupper-middle-income countries. Improved energy efficiency,reflected in the declining energy intensity of grossdomestic product, has substantially contributed to limitglobal carbon dioxide emissions at the current level;otherwise, the world's current carbon dioxide emissionswould have been 40 percent higher. Despite the recent rapidexpansion of renewable energy, its contribution to slowingthe growth of global carbon dioxide emissions is notnoticeable yet, due to its small share in the global energysupply mix.