Afghanistan currently faces a sea ofuncertainty. Outcomes of the September 2019 presidentialelections are not yet known, and preliminary results havebeen challenged. Insecurity continues, with government andinsurgent operations imposing an increasing burden in termsof civilian casualties. Negotiations between the US and theTaliban have recently resumed, but prospects for and thecontents of any eventual political settlement remainunclear. In the meantime, the duration and extent ofcontinued international security support is beingquestioned. While international grants continue to finance75 percent of public expenditure, current aid pledges expireat the end of 2020, with some major donors signalingintentions to significantly reduce support. This context ofuncertainty has fundamental implications for the economy,with growth and investment constrained by weak confidence.
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