Security and development remaininextricably linked in Afghanistan, with the poor securityenvironment continuing to exert a significant constraint onconfidence, investment, and growth. As a result, in 2015,the economy grew at only 0.8 percent. In addition to thesecurity situation, adverse weather conditions alsoconstrained growth, contributing to a decline inagricultural production of 5.7 percent in 2015. Availabledata for the first half of 2016 indicate ongoing low levelsof investment, with agricultural production expected toremain poor due to crop diseases and pests. Thus, in 2016,the growth rate is expected to reach only 1.2 percent,despite progress with a number of important initiatives thatare expected to have a positive impact on Afghanistan’seconomic development, including Afghanistan’s accession tothe World Trade Organization and the opening of the Chabaharport in Iran. With the economic growth rate significantlylower than the population growth rate, it is expected thatpoverty will have increased in 2015 and that it is likely tocontinue to increase throughout 2016. In the medium-termfuture, economic growth is expected to gradually accelerate,increasing from 1.8 percent in 2017 to 3.6 percent in 2019.However, stronger growth in out-years is predicated onimprovements in security, political stability, reformprogress, and continued high levels of aid.
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