Cambodia : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 2018 Update

World Bank ; International Monetary Fund

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CONTINGENT LIABILITIES;    PUBLIC DEBT;    STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES;    EXTERNAL DEBT;    DEBT DISTRESS;   

RP-ID  :  134501

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) using the revised joint IMF/WB Debt SustainabilityFramework for Low Income Countries (LIC-DSF) shows that Cambodia remains at low risk ofexternal debt distress. All debt burden indicators are projected to remain under their indicativethresholds under the baseline and the shock scenarios. While the overall risk of debt distress islow, the analysis indicates that debt sustainability is vulnerable to export and growth shocks,and the materialization of contingent liabilities. Furthermore, the public and publiclyguaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise by more than 10 percentage pointsduring the next decade due to projected large fiscal deficits in the medium term. These findingsreinforce the importance of implementing reforms to increase the economy’s resilience toexternal shocks and encourage export and economic diversification. Efforts to mobilize fiscalrevenue, to strengthen the Public Investment Management framework (including for PPPs) andfurther enhance monitoring of PPP and financial sector risks, as well as introduction of a debtbased fiscal anchor, are necessary to ensure debt sustainability in the medium term.