Following the restructuring of the debtto Glencore and the progress made in clearing externalarrears, debt vulnerabilities declined significantly, andthe external risk rating has been upgraded to high. The debtsustainability analysis (DSA) shows that all debt burdenindicators, except the debt-service-to-revenue ratio whichhas minor and temporary breaches, are below their respectivethresholds in the baseline from 2018 onwards. Thedebt-service-to-revenue ratio, falls below the threshold in2019 and remains so throughout the projection period, exceptfor minor breaches in 2020 and 2021. Overall, total publicdebt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value(PV) of the public debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP)ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The fixed primarybalance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDPratio unchanged from 2017, shows the debt ratio declining ata slower pace throughout the forecast period, furtherhighlighting the need to adhere to the prudent fiscal policyframework underpinning the International Monetary Fund(IMF)-supported program. Adoption and implementation of anappropriate debt management strategy, while making progressin economic diversification will further reduce vulnerabilities.
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