The withdrawal of international securityforces since 2014 and continuing political uncertaintieshave resulted in a significant deceleration to economicgrowth, with fiscal pressures increasing as security threatsmount. However, to a significant extent, Afghanistan hassuccessfully managed the immediate challenges resulting fromthe transition. It has maintained macroeconomic stabilityand established the conditions for a slow recovery of theeconomy. Risks to the economy remain significant, and it isvital that the Government identify new sources of growth toreplace the declining donor inflows over the longer-term.The medium-term outlook points towards a slow recovery overthe next three years. The rate of growth is projected toreach 1.9 percent in 2016, assuming adjustments in firms andhouseholds’ behavior in the context of the deterioratingsecurity environment. Growth is projected to graduallyincrease from 1.9 percent in 2016 to 3.6 percent in 2018, ifthe political situation stabilizes and planned reforms aresuccessfully implemented. On the other hand, anydeterioration in the security environment could weakengrowth prospects, with this risk being the most significantfaced by the country.
PDF
download
878987797
028-85220240
