Taking Stock, July 2017 : An Update on Vietnam’s Recent Economic Developments

World Bank

World Bank, Hanoi

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;    FISCAL TRENDS;    MONETARY POLICY;    FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;   

RP-ID  :  117434

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

A broad-based recovery in globaleconomic activity has been taking hold since late 2016.Industrial production has picked up and global tradeaccelerated after two years of pronounced weakness. Agradual recovery in commodity prices diminished growthconstraints among commodity exporters, including majoremerging economies. Despite heightened policy uncertainty,growth in major advanced economies, including the UnitedStates, the European Union, and Japan, has strengthened,reflecting buoyant domestic demand and rising exports.Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continuesto be resilient as already robust domestic demand wassupported by a pickup in external demand and a gradualrecovery in commodity prices. After a large surplus in 2016,Vietnam’s external current account balance started todecline in early 2017. Robust growth in exports, tourismreceipts, and private remittances led to a current accountsurplus of about 4 percent of GDP in 2016, marking the sixthconsecutive year of a widening current account surplus. Thefinancial account also saw large net inflows of foreigndirect investment (FDI) and long-term loans, allowing theState Bank of Vietnam to gradually rebuild foreign reserves.The current account surplus started to decline in early 2017due to a recovery in import growth. Bolstered by a strongexternal position, the nominal exchange rate has beenrelatively stable but the real exchange rate continues toappreciate. The reference rate was devalued modestly by 1.23percent in 2016 and around 1.3 percent year-to-date in 2017.Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate continued toappreciate by about 5 percent in 2016 and 24 percent since2010. Real exchange rate appreciation is driven by a largeexternal surplus of the FDI sector, but is a concern forVietnam’s domestic private enterprises, which continue toface significant external imbalance and competitivenesschallenges. This special focus issue is part of two-partseries on fiscal reforms. While this installment of thetaking stock special topic is focused on specific revenueand debt management options to underpin more sustainable andefficient fiscal management, the December issue will focuson expenditure restructuring.