Moldova ranks as the most climatevulnerable country in Europe, according to the widely usedNDGAIN vulnerability assessment methodology. Temperature andrainfall have increased in Moldova over the last century,and severe floods and droughts have been occurring moreregularly in recent times. For example, in the years priorto 2007, average annual losses from climate-related disasterlosses were estimated at over USD60m per year, but in thesame year, a severe drought occurred which was laterassessed to have caused around USD1 billion of damage andlosses. Looking forward, climate models predict further meantemperature rises and more variable rainfall with anythingfrom a slight increase to a significant decline in totalprecipitation. Even under scenarios with an increase in meanrainfall, however, water availability will decrease due toincreased temperatures and rates of evapotranspiration.Rainfall will also become more variable and moreconcentrated due to the more common extreme events. Ingeneral, climate adaptation issues in Moldova have been wellcharacterized. The National Climate Change AdaptationStrategy identifies six sectors at particular risk.Agricultural productivity will significantly decrease due toincreasing water stress on crops, even without accountingfor the increasing impact of extreme weather events (i.e.,hailstorms and late frosts, major floods and droughts, orchanges in patterns of disease and pests). Total wateravailability will fall below total demand within a couple ofdecades. Health effects of climate change will includeincreases in heat related ailments (includingcardio-vascular disease), transmission of gastro-intestinaldiseases, air pollution and allergies, as well as highernumbers of casualties from natural disasters. Theproductivity of forests will diminish and pathology patternsare expected to change. Peak energy consumption patternswill shift from the winter to the summer, energydistribution and transmission infrastructure may also beimpacted and the country’s potential to reduce energyimports through development of renewable sources (mainlysolar, biomass, wind, and geothermal) could be compromised.Transport infrastructure could be disrupted. The currentstudy extends existing analyses through a quantitativeassessment of adaptation investment opportunities andreturns across the target sectors. To achieve this, thestudy evaluated the cost of inaction in each sector, i.e.,the expected annual opportunity cost of not being betteradapted to prevailing climate conditions.
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