Republic of the Marshall Islands : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EXTERNAL DEBT;    PUBLIC DEBT;    PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT;    DEBT SUSTAINABILITY;    PUBLIC GUATANTEES;   

RP-ID  :  129996

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The 2018 Debt Sustainability Analysis(DSA) assesses that the Republic of the Marshall Islands(RMI) remains at high risk of debt distress. The ratios ofthe present value (PV) of external public andpublicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt to GDP and to exports arecurrently just below their respective policy-dependentindicative thresholds. The PV of the PPG debt-to-GDP ratiois expected to decline slightly in the near term, but tostart increasing and exceed its indicative threshold in themedium to long term. Stress tests confirm the vulnerabilityof the debt position to lending terms as well asmacroeconomic shocks. Although the RMI does not currentlyface debt servicing risks, helped by government revenue fromfishing licenses and a stable flow of funds from the U.S.Compact grants until FY2023, a lack of fiscal buffers afterFY2023 and risks from contingent liabilities call for afiscal reform strategy. Containing the risk of debt distressrequires continuation of grants to support the country’slarge development needs, and implementation of fiscal andstructural reforms to promote fiscal sustainability and growth.