Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019

World Bank ; International Monetary Fund

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: DEBT DISTRESS;    DEBT SERVICE BURDEN;    PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT;    CONTINGENT LIABILITY;    PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT;   

RP-ID  :  142536

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Guinea is at moderate risk of externaldebt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All externaldebt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie belowtheir policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest thatdebt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocksmaterialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, allsolvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholdsfor prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debtdistress is also assessed to be moderate, with theapplication of judgement regarding a brief and marginalbreach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of therecapitalization of the central bank. Guinea’s external andpublic debt position at end-2018 improved compared to theDecember 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growthestimates in 2016–17, lower-than-anticipated external loandisbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. Aprudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing theconcessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loansto programmed amounts and strengthening debt management willbe key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability.