Optimal Climate Policy and the Future of World Economic Development

Budolfson, Mark ; Dennig, Francis ; Fleurbaey, Marc ; Scovronick, Noah ; Siebert, Asher ; Spears, Dean ; Wagner, Fabian

Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank

关键词: CLIMATE POLICY;    CLIMATE CHANGE;    CARBON TAX;    POPULATION GROWTH;    TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1093/wber/lhx016

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

How much should the present generations sacrifice to reduce emissions today, in order to reduce the future harms of climate change? Within climate economics, debate on this question has been focused on so-called “ethical parameters” of social time preference and inequality aversion. We show that optimal climate policy similarly importantly depends on the future of the developing world. In particular, although global poverty is falling and the economic lives of the poor are improving worldwide, leading models of climate economics may be too optimistic about two central predictions: future population growth in poor countries, and future convergence in total factor productivity (TFP). We report results of small modifications to a standard model: under plausible scenarios for high future population growth (especially in sub-Saharan Africa) and for low future TFP convergence, we find that optimal near-term carbon taxes could be substantially larger.