Implications of Climate Change for Water Resources Development in the Ganges Basin

Jeuland, Marc ; Harshadeep, Nagaraja ; Escurra, Jorge ; Blackmore, Don ; Sadoff, Claudia

IWA Publishing

关键词: FLOODING;    WATER ALLOCATION;    COVERING;    POWER PLANTS;    FLOW;   

DOI  :  10.2166/wp.2013.107
RP-ID  :  103888

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents the first basin-wideassessment of the potential impact of climate change on thehydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken aspart of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment.A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climateprojections, water balance calculations, hydrologicalsimulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment.The authors find that projections of precipitation acrossthe basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change-recognized General Circulation Models arehighly variable, and lead to considerable differences inpredictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges andits tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted futureflows, they are not, however, outside the range of naturalvariability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributaryor sub-catchment levels. The authors also find that thehydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large damsin Nepal remains high across climate models, largely becauseannual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds thestorage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios.The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided bythese infrastructures translates into enhanced wateravailability in the dry season, but the relative value ofthis water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangeticplain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh underclimate change, is unclear.