R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

Artuc, Erhan ; Pourpourides, Panayiotis M.

Elsevier

关键词: Cycles;    Technology shocks;    Business cycles;    Investment-specific shocks;    R&D;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.006

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959–2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment.