Migration, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico

Aroca, Patricio ; Maloney, William F.

Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank

关键词: ARBITRAGE;    ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION;    BULLETIN;    CENSUS OF POPULATION;    CENTRAL BANK;   

DOI  :  10.1093/wber/lhi017
RP-ID  :  77497

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Part of the rationale for the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was that it willincrease trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows,creating jobs and reducing migration to the United States(U.S.). Since poor data on illegal migration to the UnitedStates make direct measurement difficult, data on migrationwithin Mexico, where census data permit careful analysis,are used instead to evaluate the mechanism behindpredictions on migration to the United States.Specifications are provided for migration within Mexico,incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities, andnetworks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor marketvariables enter very significantly and as predicted oncepossible credit constraint effects are controlled for.Greater exposure to FDI and trade deters outmigration, withthe effects working partly through the labor market.Finally, some tentative inferences are presented about theimpact of increased FDI on Mexico- U.S. migration. Onaverage, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a 1.5 to 2percent drop in migration.