Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep ; Mendelsohn, Robert ; Hassan, Rashid ; Benhin, James ; Deressa, Temesgen ; Diop, Mbaye ; Eid, Helmy Mohamed ; Fosu, K. Yerfi ; Gbetibouo, Glwadys ; Jain, Suman ; Mahamadou, Ali ; Mano, Renneth ; Kabubo-Mariara, Jane ; El-Marsafawy, Samia ; Molua, Ernest ; Ouda, Samiha ; Ouedraogo, Mathieu ; Sene, Isidor ; Maddison, David ; Seo, S. Niggol ; Dinar, Ariel

Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank

关键词: AGRICULTURAL CROPS;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL POLICIES;    AGRICULTURAL TRADE;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1093/wber/lhl004
RP-ID  :  77529

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Measurement of the likely magnitude ofthe economic impact of climate change on African agriculturehas been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectionalapproach estimates how farm net revenues are affected byclimate change compared with current mean temperature.Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperatureelasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenuesrise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which arelocated in relatively cool parts of Africa and are bufferedby irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warminghas little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigatedcrops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock.Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm incomeimmediately. The final effects will also depend on changesin precipitation, because revenues from all farm typesincrease with precipitation. Because irrigated farms areless sensitive to climate, where water is available,irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.