The probability of failure, Pf, for various square-arrayed thermoelectric device designs using bismuth telluride, lead telluride, or skutterudite thermoelectric materials were estimated. Only volume- or bulk-based Pf analysis was considered in this study. The effects of the choice of the thermoelectric material, the size of the leg array, the height of the thermoelectric legs, and the boundary conditions on the Pf of thermoelectric devices were investigated. Yielding of the solder contacts and mounting layer was taken into account. The modeling results showed that the use of longer legs, using skutterudites, allowing the thermoelectric device to freely deform while under a thermal gradient, and using smaller arrays promoted higher probabilities of survival.