Characterizing Fault-Plume Intersection Probability for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment.

Jordan, P. D. ; Oldenburg, C. M. ; Nicot, J. P.

Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee

关键词: Geologic carbon sequestration;    Risk assessment;    Fault-plume intersection;    Leakage;    Fault statistical parameters;   

RP-ID  :  DE2009948499

学科分类：工程和技术（综合）

美国|英语

来源: National Technical Reports Library

【 摘 要 】

Leakage of CO(sub 2) out of the designated storage region via faults is a widely recognized concern for geologic carbon sequestration. The probability of such leakage can be separated into the probability of a plume encountering a fault and the probability of flow along such a fault. In the absence of deterministic fault location information, the first probability can be calculated from regional fault population statistics and modeling of the plume shape and size. In this study, fault statistical parameters were measured or estimated for WESTCARB's Phase III pilot test injection in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Combining CO(sub 2) plume model predictions with estimated fault characteristics resulted in a 3% probability that the CO(sub 2) plume will encounter a fault fully offsetting the 180 m (590 ft) thick seal. The probability of leakage is lower, likely much lower, as faults with this offset are probably low-permeability features in this area.