Coastal Climate Risk Project Milestone 1 Final report to the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified

Baynes, Tim ; Herr, Alexander Herr - Herry ; Langston, Art ; Schandl, Heinz

CSIRO

DOI  :  10.4225/08/584ee863bc0bd
RP-ID  :  EP129017

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

澳大利亚|英语

来源: CSIRO Research Publications Repository

【 摘 要 】

The important and ongoing work on the question of where climate change effects will occur in Australia begets an equally significant and urgent question: who or what could be affected by those changes? This report presents the first assessment aimed at answering that question for multiple climate change impacts at the continental scale.Four climate change impacts are considered in this work: the combined effect of sea-level rise and storm-tides on coastal inundation, exposure to bushfire, inland flooding and exposure to heat. This is appraised to the end of the century concurrent with three different scenarios for population distribution: an urban consolidation, regional development and business as usual or ‘base case’ scenario. This report is about estimating ‘exposure’ which relates to just one element in the calculation of future risk or likely damage due to climate change impacts. Exposure tells us where climate impacts can happen and potentially how severe they might be. Exposure by itself does not represent likelihood or extent of damage and is not the same as risk. It is vital to appreciate that measures of exposure represent possible hazards, which need to be moderated by information on their likelihood. Determining the probability of hazards and the resultant impacts is the work of Milestone 2 of this project.