A Validation Study of the Performance Prediction Methodology of the Early Warning Metrics

Holloman, Sherrica ; Pelayo, Nikka ; Perlongo, Nicholas ; Zaremba, Anatoliy ; Peters, Wanda

关键词: COMMUNICATION SATELLITES;    COST ANALYSIS;    EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS;    ERROR ANALYSIS;    FLIGHT INSTRUMENTS;    HEALTH;    MATHEMATICAL MODELS;    MANAGEMENT METHODS;    NASA PROGRAMS;    OPTICAL COMMUNICATION;    PERFORMANCE PREDICTION;    PREDICTION ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES;    PROJECT MANAGEMENT;    PROVING;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;    TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;   

RP-ID  :  IAC-19.D1.4B.x52306,GSFC-E-DAA-TN73301

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Complex projects frequently experience delays and develop backlogs of their project control milestones during the acquisition and development lifecycles. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) formed an independent group of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to monitor the execution performance of GSFC Flight projects and instruments that are under development. The SME team’s objective is to generate data driven performance-based indicators that quantify the degree to which projects are meeting their respective schedule and budget commitments. One of these performance-based indicators, the Early Warning Metrics, provides performance forecasts and insight to project performance relative to historical successful projects. Herein this paper describes the purpose and utility of the Early Warning Metrics. Additionally, the initial prediction method used in the creation of the metrics is described along with its validity and the validity of comparable prediction methods.