GEOS Seasonal Forecast Systems: ENSO Prediction Skill and Biases. Two System Versions, Two Time Periods

Borovikov, Anna ; Marshak, Jelena ; Molod, Andrea ; Kovach, Robin

关键词: ASSIMILATION;    CLIMATOLOGY;    CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS;    DATA PROCESSING;    EL NINO;    EQUATORIAL REGIONS;    GEOS SATELLITES (ESA);    MEAN SQUARE VALUES;    OCEAN DATA ACQUISITIONS SYSTEMS;    SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;    TROPICAL REGIONS;   

RP-ID  :  GSFC-E-DAA-TN73240

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

This study aims to document, compare and contrast the differences in prediction skill of the GEOS seasonal forecast system over the two periods: 1982-1998 and 1999-2016. The systematic biases are different over these periods due to various factors, and properly accounting for them is important in estimating the forecast skill.