The moisture held within the top meter or two of soil is a very tiny fraction (less than 0.01) of the Earthstotal water (Eagleson, 1970). Nevertheless, its presence at the interface of the land and atmosphere gives it inordinateimportance in the context of climate variability. Simply put, soil moisture variations can help determine meteorologicalvariations. Consider, for example, an anomalously high evapotranspiration rate induced by a high soil moisture content.The high evapotranspiration can lead to an anomalously cooled land surface and thus cooler air temperatures(Seneviratne et al. 2010), and it can also lead to modifications in the evolution of the boundary layer, with concomitantimpacts on the generation of convective rainfall (Betts et al., 1994).Given this potential for feedback on the atmosphere,soil moisture is particularly important in the context of prediction. Atmospheric physics and dynamics are fast andcontribute little to the lifetime of an atmospheric anomaly, as reflected in the well-known time scale of typical weatherforecaststhese rely heavily on atmospheric initialization and are valid for only a week or so. Soil moisture processes, incontrast, are relatively slow. A soil moisture anomaly may persist for a month or more and is thus predictable at such timescales. As a result, and because (as noted above) the atmosphere may respond in a predictable way to a given soilmoisture anomaly, aspects of the atmosphere may also be predictable at the monthly time scale (NRC, 2010).
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