PDC19 Impact Exercise: Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Wheeler, Lorien ; Mathias, Donovan ; Rumpf, Clemens ; Dotson, Jessie ; Aftosmis, Michael

关键词: ASTEROIDS;    ASTEROID COLLISIONS;    NEAR EARTH OBJECTS;    AERIAL EXPLOSIONS;    PROBABILITY THEORY;    IMPACT;    RISK;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    OVERPRESSURE;   

RP-ID  :  ARC-E-DAA-TN68282

学科分类：天文学(综合)

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) - PDC (Planetary Defense Conference) 2019 Hypothetical Exercise, NASA Ames, Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) - Characterization Summary and Updates: Assessment date: 19 April 2027; Impact date: 29 April 2027 (10 days); Earth impact probability: 100 percent, New York Area; Diameter (meters): 60 plus or minus 10 (1 minus sigma), range 26–93; Energy: mean 11 megatons, range 650 kilotons to 46 megatons; Type: S class, remaining chunk of disrupted contact binary. Risk Summary: Affected population: mean 2.4 million, range zero to 10.2 million; Likely airburst at approximately16 kilometers altitude (8 to 29 kilometers); Blast overpressure is primary hazard;Damage out to approximately 70 kilometers if larger, lower burst;Little-to-no damage if burst is small and high.