Nasa GEOS Model for Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictions: The Major Teleconnections, Tropical Cyclone Activity, and ENSO

Lim, Young-Kwon ; Schubert, Siegfried D ; Molod, Andrea M

关键词: ANOMALIES;    ATLANTIC OCEAN;    CORRELATION;    EL NINO;    MATHEMATICAL MODELS;    PREDICTIONS;    SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;    TELECONNECTIONS (METEOROLOGY);    TROPICAL STORMS;    ARCTIC REGIONS;    EARTH SCIENCES;    FORECASTING;    HINDCASTING;    SIZE DISTRIBUTION;   

RP-ID  :  GSFC-E-DAA-TN63817

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Ability of the NASA GEOS seasonal prediction model system (the latest version) in predicting the large-scale teleconnections, tropical cyclone (TC) activity, and ENSO are validated. The major large-scale teleconnections include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) that span vast geographical area across the North Pacific/Atlantic and North America. Predictive skill of TC activity is assessed by Genesis potential index (GPI). Anomaly correlations are greater than 0.5 for winter teleconnections at up to 2 month lead and for the first four month (June- July-August-September) GPIs over the North Atlantic and the Western Pacific. Correlation for the long-range prediction of the ENSO (Nino3.4 SST) maturity reaches 0.9 at 6 month lead and 0.8 at 9 month lead.