High Fidelity Collision Probabilities Estimated Using Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

Hall, Doyle T ; Casali, Stephen J ; Johnson, Lauren C ; Skrehart, Brent B ; Baars, Luis G

关键词: SPACECRAFT BREAKUP;    COLLISIONS;    PROBABILITY THEORY;    ESTIMATING;    MONTE CARLO METHOD;    COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION;    ORBIT DETERMINATION;    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;    SATELLITE DRAG;    ACCURACY;    COMPUTER PROGRAMS;   

RP-ID  :  AAS 18-244,GSFC-E-DAA-TN58551

学科分类：航空航天科学

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.