GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

Borovikov, Anna ; Kovach, Robin ; Marshak, Jelena

关键词: EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM (EOS);    FORECASTING;    ATMOSPHERIC MODELS;    ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS;    SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;    SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;    BIAS;    EL NINO;    THICKNESS;    SOIL MOISTURE;    SEA ICE;   

RP-ID  :  GSFC-E-DAA-TN51210

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.